LONDON: With bated breath, the world awaits Iran’s promised retaliation for final week’s suspected Israeli airstrike on its embassy annex within the Syrian capital Damascus. No matter type Teheran’s revenge takes, there may be mounting public worry it may set off an all-out conflict.
Not less than 16 individuals have been reportedly killed within the April 1 assault, together with two senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ extraterritorial Quds Power — Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi.
A day after the assault, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi promised the strike would “not go unanswered.” 5 days later, Yahya Rahim Safavi, senior adviser to Iran’s supreme chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that Israel’s embassies “are not protected.”
Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement within the strike, however Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh stated the US has assessed that the Israelis have been accountable.
Center East specialists consider Iran’s promised revenge may take many varieties, doubtlessly involving direct missile strikes through one of many IRGC’s proxy teams within the area, equivalent to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“Retaliation appears inevitable. However what type it takes is anybody’s guess,” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Venture on the Worldwide Disaster Group, instructed Arab Information.
An assault on an Israeli Embassy “shall be on par with what Israel did in Damascus,” stated Vaez, however “nobody is aware of for positive what type the Iranian response will take.”
FASTFACTS
• Jan. 3, 2020: Quds Power commander Qassem Soleimani killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad.
• Dec. 25, 2023: Seyyed Razi, who headed the IRGC’s logistics and army coordination in Syria, killed exterior Damascus in suspected Israeli strike.
• Jan. 20, 2024: Senior Quds Power commander Hajj Sadegh killed when Israel struck a constructing in Damascus’ Mazzeh neighborhood.
• April 1, 2024: Mohammed Reza Zahedi, his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, and 5 different IRGC officers killed in suspected Israeli strike on embassy annex in Damascus.
Israel appears to have taken pre-emptive measures. Not solely has it bolstered its air defenses and referred to as up reservists, however it additionally shuttered 28 of its 103 diplomatic missions world wide on Friday, in accordance with the Jerusalem Submit, and stepped up safety measures round its numerous consulates and missions.
Stressing that the strike is “uncommon,” particularly throughout such “advanced and delicate occasions,” Eva J. Koulouriotis, a political analyst specializing within the Center East, believes “Tehran has no selection however to reply.”
She instructed Arab Information: “Tel Aviv, which selected to assassinate Gen. Zahedi and his companions within the Iranian consulate constructing in Damascus, was in a position to assassinate him exterior the consulate or on the Masnaa crossing on the Syrian-Lebanese border, and even in his workplace within the southern suburb of Beirut.
“Nonetheless, the selection of this place by the Israeli management, which can be the residence of the Iranian ambassador, is a message of escalation addressed on to Khamenei and the IRGC.”
Koulouriotis didn’t low cost the opportunity of an assault on an Israeli Embassy.
“Final December, an explosion occurred close to the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi, with out inflicting any casualties,” she stated. “Though no get together claimed duty for the assault, there’s a perception in Israel that Iran had a hand on this bombing.
“Due to this fact, for my part, Tehran will take an analogous step sooner or later with out claiming duty for the assault, however it is not going to be a direct response to the assault on the consulate in Damascus because of the sensitivity of this step.”
However, Koulouriotis believes “the Iranian response should be publicly adopted to realize deterrence on the one hand and to fulfill the favored base of the Iranian regime on the opposite.
“Due to this fact, for Tehran to go in the direction of a public and direct assault on an Israeli diplomatic mission in one of many international locations of the area will imply a harmful escalation, not with Israel alone, however with the nation by which the assault came about.”
Phillip Smyth, a fellow on the Washington Institute and former researcher with the College of Maryland, believes the assertion from Khamenei’s adviser Safavi about Israeli embassies was “actually a menace,” however “the difficulty is that if Iran or its proxies can ship on that promise.”
He instructed Arab Information: “Different operations, equivalent to in India and Thailand — each involving Lebanese Hezbollah — failed. There’s quite a lot of intelligence stress on all these operations, too.”
Vaez of the Worldwide Disaster Group concurs {that a} response can be “a really troublesome needle to string for Iran.”
He stated: “Tehran doesn’t wish to fall into an Israeli entice that might justify increasing the conflict but in addition can’t afford to permit Israel to focus on Iranian diplomatic amenities for free of charge.”
Smyth, an knowledgeable on Iranian proxies, agreed {that a} typical direct retaliation, equivalent to utilizing ballistic missiles as its army did earlier than to focus on US forces and Kurdish websites in Iraq, “may open up the Islamic Republic to extra direct strikes by Israel.”
In 2020, Iran responded to the unprecedented US assassination of Quds Power commander Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport with a direct assault on US troops, launching a barrage of ballistic missiles on the Ain Al-Assad base in Iraq.
For the reason that suspected Israeli assault on the Iranian Embassy annex in Damascus, the US has been on excessive alert, braced for Iran’s “inevitable” response that might come inside the subsequent week, a prime US administration official instructed CNN on April 5.
The US, Israel’s strongest ally, was fast to disclaim involvement or prior information of the assault and warned Iran to not retaliate towards American pursuits.
“We is not going to hesitate to defend our personnel and repeat our prior warnings to Iran and its proxies to not reap the benefits of the scenario — once more, an assault by which we had no involvement or superior information — to renew their assaults on US personnel,” Robert Wooden, deputy US ambassador to the UN, stated in an announcement.
US troops within the Center East, significantly these stationed in Iraq and Syria, have been frequent targets for Iran and its proxies.
Smyth stated Tehran may resort to utilizing its “well-developed military of proxy teams unfold out throughout the area,” which embody Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, militias in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Hezbollah introduced on Friday that it was “absolutely ready” to go to conflict with Israel.
In a speech commemorating Jerusalem Day, the group’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah, described the April 1 strike as a “turning level” and stated Iran’s retaliation was “inevitable.”
Center East analyst Koulouriotis stated the most certainly first response state of affairs is that Iran would “give the inexperienced gentle to Hezbollah in Lebanon … to launch a heavy missile strike towards quite a lot of cities in northern Israel, crucial of which is Haifa.”
Nonetheless, “this state of affairs is difficult and should result in the opening of an expanded conflict towards Hezbollah that can finish with Iran dropping the Lebanon card after Hamas in Gaza.”
Tehran may additionally order its multinational militias in Syria to direct a missile strike towards one in all Israel’s army bases within the Golan, stated Koulouriotis, however this feature “can be futile.”
She added: “Moscow might not conform to carry Damascus right into a direct battle with Tel Aviv, which can result in Assad paying a heavy value, and thus Tehran may have risked the efforts of 14 years of conflict in Syria.”
An analyst stated Iran may discover Israeli positions within the Golan area an acceptable goal because it seeks to answer Israel’s April 1 assault on Iran’s consulate constructing annex in Damascus. (AFP)
As Tehran considers the Damascus embassy annex strike a direct assault “concentrating on its status within the area,” Koulouriotis stated it’d select a direct response to Israel utilizing ballistic missiles and suicide drones, “and the Golan area could also be appropriate for this response.
“Regardless of the complexities of this state of affairs linked to the Israeli response, which can result in extra escalation, it saves face for the Iranian regime and sends a message to Tel Aviv that Tehran is not going to tolerate crossing the pink traces.”
Smyth of the Washington Institute believes that whereas “there could also be a (grander) effort to reveal a brand new weapons functionality by a proxy and even Iran itself,” Tehran’s response may additionally take a type much like the Houthi assaults on delivery within the Crimson Sea.
“They’ve already demonstrated makes an attempt to economically hurt the Israelis by establishing quasi-blockades of the Crimson Sea by utilizing the Houthis,” he stated.
In the meantime, communities throughout the Center East can solely wait with mounting concern for the seemingly inevitable Iranian response, conscious that they are going to probably bear the brunt of any ensuing escalation.
Certainly, it isn’t a lot a query of if, however when.
“The delay in response is especially associated to the oblique negotiations between Tehran and Washington,” stated Koulouriotis. “To forestall the Iranian response from resulting in an expanded conflict or a extra harmful escalation within the area.”
